China bank loans could top 10 trillion yuan in 2009

New lending by Chinese banks is likely to exceed 10 trillion yuan this year, according to a Shanghai Securities News report.

The announcement came even as China's bank regulators warned the industry about the risks of improper loans. Combined renminbi lending by China's big four state lenders reached 497 billion yuan in June, with total lending in China exceeding 7 trillion yuan in the first half of 2009; bank lending is typically front-loaded toward the beginning of the year.

Regulators warned last month that credit directed to the property sector and the stock market was creating the risk of an asset bubble instead of supporting small businesses and the broader economy.

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Demonstrators mark Hong Kong handover anniversary

Hong Kong residents marched the streets on Wednesday on the 12th anniversary of the handover of the territory to China.

Demonstrators protested issues ranging from democratic elections to the performance of Chief Executive Donald Tsang to bank governance, with police estimates putting the crowd at 26,000. Organizers said the figure was 76,000, and that turnout for the annual march was boosted by the financial crisis.

Demonstrators also sought the release of Liu Xiaobo, a dissident writer who participated in the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989 and was detained in December for signing the Charter 08 manifesto. Liu was officially arrested by police in May.

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80 infant girls seized, handed over for foreign adpotion

Almost 80 infant girls from Guizhou province were taken by family planning officials since 2001 and put up for foreign adoption, according to China state media.

According to a report in the Southern Metropolis News, farmers in Zhenyuan county who could not afford the US$2,926.50 fee for failing to comply with the two-child birth control policy in rural areas were forced to give their infant daughters to officials. Authorities then forged documents stating that the children were orphans and gave the children to families in the US and Europe for a US$3,000 fee, which was split between officials and the orphanage.

Records show that at least 78 girls were given to foreign families over the past eight years.

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Beijing Automotive to place Opel bid soon

Beijing Automotive Industry Holding will present a detailed bid to General Motors (GM) for its Opel unit in Europe within a few days.

Beijing Automotive held discussions with beleaguered GM over the Opel unit last week and is currently working out details for a bid. However, GM in May signed a memorandum of understanding to sell a majority stake in Opel to Canadian supplier Magna International.

Magna's bid is backed by Russia's Sberbank Rossia and automaker OZO GAZ Group.

Opel's labor unions have already spoken in support of the Magna bid. The head of the Opel workers council on Wednesday expressed reservations about the Chinese bidder.

"They only want technology and have no experience in global auto production," said Klaus Franz.

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CNPC seeks to revive bid for YPF

China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) is seeking to revive a failed bid for the Argentinian unit of Spanish energy firm Repsol-YPF in a deal that could be worth up to US$17 billion.

CNPC may attempt to buy up to three-quarters of YPF, while rival CNOOC is said to be interested in buying a 25% stake.

This has prompted fears in Buenos Aires that Argentina's largest company would be taken over by China; the bid is expected to face political opposition. YPF is Argentina's largest oil producer and is responsible for about 37% of the country's output.

YPF was bought by Madrid-based Repsol for US$13.4 billion in 1999. Representatives from the Chinese firms declined to comment.

In 2007, CNPC twice failed to buy YPF's Latin American assets.

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Sichuan Expressway to restart Shanghai listing

Toll road operator Sichuan Expressway will become the first firm to launch an IPO on the Shanghai bourse this year after a nine-month moratorium on Shanghai listings.

The Hong Kong-listed firm plans to float 500 million A-shares and raise US$204.9 million. Sichuan Expressway's underwriter said that the firm had not yet received approval to begin IPO sales, but that approval was expected soon. Sichuan Expressway would be the fourth company to list A-shares since the moratorium on new share offerings was lifted. The other three small cap firms listed on Shenzhen's SME board.

Analysts said Sichuan Expressway's A-share listing could also open the door for red chip firms such as China Mobile to list domestically.

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GM China sales up 38 percent

General Motors said on Wednesday that sales in China grew 38% year-on-year in the first half of 2009 on the back of strong demand for small vehicles such as minivans.

First-half sales stood at 814,442, compared to 1,094,561 in sales for all of last year.

Sales were assisted by government subsidies and strong growth in inland cities. Total passenger car sales in China grew by 21% year-on-year to 3.36 million units in the January to May period. Total vehicle sales grew by 14.3% yearly in the time period to 4.96 million units, according to industry data.

China's total auto sales are expected to top 10 million units this year, compared to 9.38 million units sold in 2008.

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China PMI rose in June

The Purchasing Managers' Index rose in June, marking the fourth straight month that manufacturing activity has expanded, according to data from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing.

The PMI in June rose to 53.2, up from 53.1 in May. A figure over 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing activity.

The PMI data comes two weeks before China is due to release second-quarter economic data and is seen as another indication that China’s economic stimulus plan has led to an economic rebound. The new export orders component of the PMI rose to 51.4 in June from 50.1 in May, suggesting exports may also be showing signs of strength.

However, the data also indicated that manufacturers remained cautious about building up inventories.

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Planting seeds – Can foreign banks make a profit off of rural banking?

Fish farmer Liu Huaxin would like a loan to grow his business. The extra money would allow Liu to expand his production capacity as well as move into speciality fish products which could help to increase his profits and ultimately improve his standard of living. That is easier said than done in his home of Qiaozui, a village near Wuhan.

"Right now, banks in our district have bad debt and many non-performing loans. Bad creditors have damaged good creditors' [reputations] because they did not pay their loans," he said.

Liu is one of those good creditors, having repaid in full and on time a RMB10,000 (US$1,460) micro-credit loan he received in 2007. But despite his history, and although Beijing is encouraging lending to individuals and companies under its US$586 billion stimulus package, he has found it hard to get a loan.

In the past, farmers like Liu had few alternatives if they were turned down by a bank. Liu's local rural credit cooperative (RCC) came through with a micro-credit loan in the end, but had it not, he doesn't know what he would have done.

Now, Liu has somewhere else to go. HSBC, Standard Chartered and Citi have opened rural institutions, taking advantage of a regulation introduced by the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) in 2006 to invite banks to set up township banks or lending companies in rural areas. These banks bring with them international risk management principles and focus on smaller loan amounts.

Global expertise

"When the CBRC invited us it also hoped we could bring in international standards for corporate governance and risk management," said Elton W.K. Lee, executive vice president and head of rural banking for HSBC.

HSBC, which started opening rural banks in 2006, currently has the largest rural network with five outlets - in Hubei, Chongqing, Fujian, Beijing and Guangdong. Citi China opened two lending companies in Hubei province in 2008 and 2009, and will open a third branch near Dalian in Liaoning province in the near future. Standard Chartered has one branch in Inner Mongolia that opened last year.

Zhang Kai, director of franchise development for Citi China, said that Citi chose the rural lending company model, where the company offers credit and loans to local businesses but does not take deposits, because this was the best way to serve the local market. "[We] wanted to expand our business to less-developed regions of China by introducing a commercially viable model," she said.

Each of the banks stressed that commercial rationale, not corporate social responsibility, was their primary reason for entering the rural areas. But given this approach appears so at odds with the core of these lenders' China strategy - doing business with high-value clients in urban areas - some market watchers don't take the claims at face value.

"They're being good corporate citizens," said Peter Tebbutt, senior director of financial institutions for Fitch Ratings. "But there's learning to do to understand what's going on in rural China. [This is a good idea] just for their understanding of China and a broader understanding of Chinese banking markets."

Qiang Liao, director of financial institutions for Standard & Poor's, is more skeptical, suggesting the foreign banks are playing politics as much as being do-gooders. "I think they might get soft rewards in other areas such as getting more favorable responses in their applications for new branches in coastal cities or new business licenses," he said.

Qiang added that the banks may have a second, longer-term goal. Many export-related manufacturers are moving to central and western China both to cut costs and to meet the needs of increasingly affluent local customers. Foreign banks that lay down roots in these areas now may find themselves well positioned to take advantage of strong loan demand in five to 10 years' time.

Foreign banks may also have an advantage in trade finance, as they can provide larger and stronger international networks than many of their Chinese competitors. HSBC has already begun to roll out trade financing at its rural banks, starting in Suizhou, Hubei province in April of this year. Lee said Suizhou was chosen as the pilot location because the area's businesses are all export-oriented.

But setting up advanced services not offered by domestic counterparts in rural areas does not mean much if customers cannot access them. With a small number of branches spread over a wide geographical area, it's difficult for customers to take advantage of these services. Consequently, banks may struggle to make their rural operations profitable.

"We need to reach a critical mass in order to achieve profitability," Lee said. "If you just open one or two branches, the costs... will be out of proportion."

Small base, big ideas

The banks have tried some unique ideas to expand their reach without increasing the number of branches. Citi and HSBC both offer unsecured loans. Borrowers must pass credit checks to qualify for these loans and, if they are using HSBC, provide references and an individual guarantor. HSBC also provides what it calls supply-chain financing loans through the major agribusinesses in the areas where it has rural branches. These companies then extend small loans to the farmers who supply their raw materials.

Standard Chartered, meanwhile, has several micro finance initiatives underway. It runs a program with Esquel, a major Hong Kong apparel manufacturer, to provide cotton farmers in Xinjiang with micro-finance loans as well as educational seminars about debt management for farmers. It has also pledged US$2.93 million to the China Foundation for Poverty Alleviation (CFPA) for micro loans to small businesses in seven provinces.

The banks said that they are looking into ways to provide mobile banking to help reach customers in remote areas. Though it may help the banks to reach more customers, mobile banking is more of a stop-gap than a permanent solution.

"If they're seriously interested in rural finance they should adopt the same strategy that they are doing in urban centers," said Qian Ying, principal economist (financial sector) in the East Asia department of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). "They should look at how to build their networks."

Buyout option

If the banks feel they are unable to do this, Qian suggests that they buy existing networks. He admits this won't be easy. Most service providers in rural areas are RCCs - there are no guidelines for these to be purchased by foreign or domestic players and, even if there were, suitable candidates would be few and far between.

Rabobank dipped its toe in the water in 2006, acquiring a 10% stake in the United Rural Cooperative Bank of Hangzhou along with the International Financial Corporation, which took 5%. The purchase was part of a CBRC pilot program to allow foreign banks to invest in RCCs. A year earlier, the ADB invited Rabobank to invest in an RCC in Inner Mongolia, but the deal fell through.

The ADB is currently looking to purchase a bank in central or western China, but Qian isn't optimistic. "Their balance sheets are weak and there's lots of connected lending [to related parties] so it's not so straightforward," he said.

Foreign banks face additional barriers to expansion. They are obliged to set up each rural bank as a separate entity from one another and from their locally incorporated commercial banking entity, a rule meant to ensure that each bank stays focused on serving its local community.

It is a hurdle, but one Lee says HSBC is determined to overcome. The regulator's willingess to allow expansion is one issue; another is economics.

"We need to assess the economic potential of an area... we need to see if it's commercially viable," Lee said.

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Deep waters: China seeks E&P technology

China isn't just on the hunt for new resources - it is seeking to build out each part of its oil and gas supply chain, from the downstream refiners, to the upstream exploration and production (E&P) of needed resources. Analysts say that the country has been a quick learner in E&P, significantly boosting its technology to international standards over the past 10 years.

"For most geologies, most places around the world, the Chinese are just as capable as anyone if not better," said Daniel Rosen, a partner at the Rhodium Group, a New York-based macroeconomic advisory firm, and a visiting fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

There is, however, a finite amount of oil and gas left on the earth, and increasingly, much of it requires higher levels of technology to extract. This doesn't just involve deep water extraction, but also unconventional resources such as tar-sand oil. For Chinese firms to be competitive with the world's largest international oil companies, they will have to master these technologies.

Read the rest of this entry »

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